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Viability of Itanium-- was Intel found to be abusing market power in Japan



 
 
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  #1  
Old March 23rd 05, 01:38 PM
Robert Myers
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Posts: n/a
Default Viability of Itanium-- was Intel found to be abusing market power in Japan

On Wed, 23 Mar 2005 03:53:34 GMT, "Delbert Cecchi"
wrote:


"Robert Myers" wrote in message
.. .
On Wed, 23 Mar 2005 01:17:28 GMT, "Delbert Cecchi"
wrote:


snip

Do you think the HP enterprise servers have the critical mass to

support
Itanium development, if Intel were to back away? IBM had to

converge,
Sun is getting wobbly about sparc or so it seems.

I have a very hard time imagining a scenario in which Intel walks away
from Itanium. Just because I can't imagine it doesn't mean it won't
happen.


Why would Intel stay with it? Desktop and small servers belongs to
x86-64 from Intel and AMD. Anybody but HP making serious noises about
using Itanium?


http://uk.news.yahoo.com/050318/221/fehj1.html

quote

Within the past four years, there have probably been more stories
questioning the long-term viability of the Sparc and Itanium
architectures than any other architecture in the past several decades,
aside from the S/390 mainframe. Both Fujitsu Corp and Siemens AG
(Xetra: 723610.DE - news) , the Japanese and German counterparts in
the Fujitsu-Siemens partnership, are long-term planners that move
slowly and methodically. And they both have every intention of making
some money selling Sparc and Itanium servers for the foreseeable
future.

/quote

http://www.infoworld.com/article/05/...mequest_1.html

quote

Fujitsu to launch new PrimeQuest Itanium servers
Slated to be announced April 5, PrimeQuest will be company's first
high-end Itanium 2 systems

/quote

Then there is SGI, of course. I assume that the Altix line will
survive somewhere, and that it will use Itanium, if it's available.

Any of that amounts to critical mass? I don't think so.

Either Intel finds a way for Dell to sell Itanium systems that is
profitable for Dell, or that's it for Itanium, but don't underestimate
Dell/Intel. The incentive for Dell, other than being obedient to
Santa Clara, is that it wants to be in the higher margin businesses
just like everybody else does.

Opteron hasn't yet and may not ever penetrate much beyond the 2 and
4-way space. That's the next line of defense. If Dell as a volume
purveyor of bigger SMP boxes is the way it goes down, Dell will wind
up killing margin rather than capturing it, as it always does.

Intel manages to establish Itanium as the worthy competitor to Power
it wants it to be, Dell creates the value proposition for itanium, and
all hell breaks loose again. Or not.

One indicator will be market penetration by Opteron in the 8-way space
and higher, and how Intel reacts. x86 is already getting hardware
virtualization. If x86 starts to acquire the RAS features Intel now
intends only for Itanium, we will know that Itanium is dead.

HP is sort of stuck, having ported all that stuff from
Alpha and PA and nonstop to Itanium, but I don't see anyone else in that
boat.

The alternatives a use x86 for mainframe applications (politically
unacceptable, IMHO), continue investing in Sparc, or become dependent
on IBM.

RM
  #2  
Old March 23rd 05, 05:13 PM
chrisv
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Posts: n/a
Default

Robert Myers wrote:

Opteron hasn't yet and may not ever penetrate much beyond the 2 and
4-way space. That's the next line of defense. If Dell as a volume
purveyor of bigger SMP boxes is the way it goes down, Dell will wind
up killing margin rather than capturing it, as it always does.

Intel manages to establish Itanium as the worthy competitor to Power
it wants it to be, Dell creates the value proposition for itanium, and
all hell breaks loose again. Or not.

One indicator will be market penetration by Opteron in the 8-way space
and higher, and how Intel reacts.


Well, with dual-core, Opteron will be 8-way capable, right? That's
getting to be a serious box!

  #3  
Old March 23rd 05, 05:22 PM
Felger Carbon
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

"Robert Myers" wrote in message
...

If Dell as a volume
purveyor of bigger SMP boxes is the way it goes down, Dell will wind
up killing margin rather than capturing it, as it always does.


"Killing margin" is an interesting phrase. A synonym is "eliminating
the middleman markup", which some would see as a desirable goal. Many
americans deplore the disappearance of small outlets with high
markups, but then the same americans do all their shopping at Walmart.

One indicator will be market penetration by Opteron in the 8-way

space
and higher


I too favor the glueless NUMA SMP configurations made possible by
Opterons, including 8-way. But when I think of an 8-way motherboard,
I think of a farmer showing up with a John Deere tractor, planning to
plow the back 40. ;-)

And when I think of 8-way Opterons on more than one mobo, I worry
about high-speed link connections between boards. I believe I've been
reassured before on this NG that such connections are possible. Has
this been proven? Are production systems being shipped with 8-way
Opterons on multiple boards?


  #4  
Old March 23rd 05, 06:28 PM
Rob Stow
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Felger Carbon wrote:
"Robert Myers" wrote in message
...

If Dell as a volume
purveyor of bigger SMP boxes is the way it goes down, Dell will wind
up killing margin rather than capturing it, as it always does.



"Killing margin" is an interesting phrase. A synonym is "eliminating
the middleman markup", which some would see as a desirable goal. Many
americans deplore the disappearance of small outlets with high
markups, but then the same americans do all their shopping at Walmart.


One indicator will be market penetration by Opteron in the 8-way


space

and higher



I too favor the glueless NUMA SMP configurations made possible by
Opterons, including 8-way. But when I think of an 8-way motherboard,
I think of a farmer showing up with a John Deere tractor, planning to
plow the back 40. ;-)

And when I think of 8-way Opterons on more than one mobo, I worry
about high-speed link connections between boards. I believe I've been
reassured before on this NG that such connections are possible. Has
this been proven? Are production systems being shipped with 8-way
Opterons on multiple boards?


I read an article somewhere about an 8-way Opteron system that
had two stacked 4P boards. I thought it was an HP system, but I
looked just now and couldn't find anything with more than 4P at
HP's site.

It was probably just a review of something demoed at a show like
LinuxWorld and not yet - if ever - available in the retail channel.
  #5  
Old March 23rd 05, 09:30 PM
keith
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

On Wed, 23 Mar 2005 10:13:29 -0600, chrisv wrote:

Robert Myers wrote:

Opteron hasn't yet and may not ever penetrate much beyond the 2 and
4-way space. That's the next line of defense. If Dell as a volume
purveyor of bigger SMP boxes is the way it goes down, Dell will wind
up killing margin rather than capturing it, as it always does.

Intel manages to establish Itanium as the worthy competitor to Power
it wants it to be, Dell creates the value proposition for itanium, and
all hell breaks loose again. Or not.

One indicator will be market penetration by Opteron in the 8-way space
and higher, and how Intel reacts.


Well, with dual-core, Opteron will be 8-way capable, right? That's
getting to be a serious box!


Opteron is 8-way capable today, but the mechanics get a little
problematic. There is no reason to assume that a dual-Opteron can't reach
8-way on a 4-W board. If you're thinking of a 16P system, AIUI, it's not
going to happen. There would have to be changes to the coherent HT links
for that to happen. I don't see it, but...

--
Keith
  #6  
Old March 23rd 05, 09:35 PM
keith
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

On Thu, 24 Mar 2005 01:38:36 +0000, Rob Stow wrote:

Delbert Cecchi wrote:
"Rob Stow" wrote in message
news:sTn0e.766510$8l.13114@pd7tw1no...

Ed wrote:

On Wed, 23 Mar 2005 17:28:19 GMT, Rob Stow
wrote:


I read an article somewhere about an 8-way Opteron system that
had two stacked 4P boards. I thought it was an HP system, but I
looked just now and couldn't find anything with more than 4P at
HP's site.


5U rack-optimized servers delivers the 8-Way Opteron power and
performance. http://www.iwillusa.com/product_1.asp?pl1_id=63

I only see 4 CPU, 4 on top - 4 on bottom?
Ed



I don't think that isn't the one I had read about.

The one you linked to uses "2 x IWILL QK8S-HT Quad AMD Opteron
system board", but I recall that in the pics of the system I was
thinking of there were two distinctly different boards. The
"lower" one was sort of L shaped while the upper one was a simple
rectangle.

Regardless, the IWill system is very interesting.



newisys. now a unit of some contract manufacturer.


Newisys was bought up by Appro.


I thought it was bought by Sanmina SCI last summer, but I can't find any
reference.

--
Keith
  #7  
Old March 24th 05, 01:31 AM
Rob Stow
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Ed wrote:
On Wed, 23 Mar 2005 17:28:19 GMT, Rob Stow
wrote:

I read an article somewhere about an 8-way Opteron system that
had two stacked 4P boards. I thought it was an HP system, but I
looked just now and couldn't find anything with more than 4P at
HP's site.



5U rack-optimized servers delivers the 8-Way Opteron power and
performance. http://www.iwillusa.com/product_1.asp?pl1_id=63

I only see 4 CPU, 4 on top - 4 on bottom?
Ed



I don't think that isn't the one I had read about.

The one you linked to uses "2 x IWILL QK8S-HT Quad AMD Opteron
system board", but I recall that in the pics of the system I was
thinking of there were two distinctly different boards. The
"lower" one was sort of L shaped while the upper one was a simple
rectangle.

Regardless, the IWill system is very interesting.

  #8  
Old March 24th 05, 01:46 AM
Rob Stow
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Rob Stow wrote:
Ed wrote:

On Wed, 23 Mar 2005 17:28:19 GMT, Rob Stow
wrote:


I read an article somewhere about an 8-way Opteron system that
had two stacked 4P boards. I thought it was an HP system, but I
looked just now and couldn't find anything with more than 4P at
HP's site.



5U rack-optimized servers delivers the 8-Way Opteron power and
performance. http://www.iwillusa.com/product_1.asp?pl1_id=63

I only see 4 CPU, 4 on top - 4 on bottom?
Ed




I don't think that isn't the one I had read about.


LOL! /s/isn't/is

The one you linked to uses "2 x IWILL QK8S-HT Quad AMD Opteron
system board", but I recall that in the pics of the system I was
thinking of there were two distinctly different boards. The
"lower" one was sort of L shaped while the upper one was a simple
rectangle.

Regardless, the IWill system is very interesting.

  #9  
Old March 24th 05, 02:06 AM
Delbert Cecchi
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default


"Robert Myers" wrote in message
...
snip

Either Intel finds a way for Dell to sell Itanium systems that is
profitable for Dell, or that's it for Itanium, but don't underestimate
Dell/Intel. The incentive for Dell, other than being obedient to
Santa Clara, is that it wants to be in the higher margin businesses
just like everybody else does.

They can enter those higher margin businesses with the X86-64 from
Intel, whatever the code name is.

Opteron hasn't yet and may not ever penetrate much beyond the 2 and
4-way space. That's the next line of defense. If Dell as a volume
purveyor of bigger SMP boxes is the way it goes down, Dell will wind
up killing margin rather than capturing it, as it always does.


Go to your strength. Dell's is having the most efficient, lowest cost,
most turns, lowest inventory manufacturing. That allows them to compete
on price. Near as I can tell, not much added value functionality in a
Dell. As opposed to a Del. :-)

In a commodity type market that is a great advantage.


Intel manages to establish Itanium as the worthy competitor to Power
it wants it to be, Dell creates the value proposition for itanium, and
all hell breaks loose again. Or not.

One indicator will be market penetration by Opteron in the 8-way space
and higher, and how Intel reacts. x86 is already getting hardware
virtualization. If x86 starts to acquire the RAS features Intel now
intends only for Itanium, we will know that Itanium is dead.


Have you reviewed the "Hurricane" chip set stuff from IBM? Lots of RAS
and it uses X86-64.

HP is sort of stuck, having ported all that stuff from
Alpha and PA and nonstop to Itanium, but I don't see anyone else in

that
boat.

The alternatives a use x86 for mainframe applications (politically
unacceptable, IMHO), continue investing in Sparc, or become dependent
on IBM.

HP is investing in Sparc? Or is that what is in a nonstop box?

RM



  #10  
Old March 24th 05, 02:08 AM
Delbert Cecchi
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default


"Rob Stow" wrote in message
news:sTn0e.766510$8l.13114@pd7tw1no...
Ed wrote:
On Wed, 23 Mar 2005 17:28:19 GMT, Rob Stow
wrote:

I read an article somewhere about an 8-way Opteron system that
had two stacked 4P boards. I thought it was an HP system, but I
looked just now and couldn't find anything with more than 4P at
HP's site.



5U rack-optimized servers delivers the 8-Way Opteron power and
performance. http://www.iwillusa.com/product_1.asp?pl1_id=63

I only see 4 CPU, 4 on top - 4 on bottom?
Ed



I don't think that isn't the one I had read about.

The one you linked to uses "2 x IWILL QK8S-HT Quad AMD Opteron
system board", but I recall that in the pics of the system I was
thinking of there were two distinctly different boards. The
"lower" one was sort of L shaped while the upper one was a simple
rectangle.

Regardless, the IWill system is very interesting.


newisys. now a unit of some contract manufacturer.



 




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