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#11
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Neil Maxwell wrote:
On Thu, 27 May 2004 04:57:21 GMT, "Yousuf Khan" wrote: They've already had experience hyping a chipset, otherwise known as Centrino. They'll have to come up with a slick moniker for Grantsdale too. I wonder if they're going to do like in the Centrino campaign, start emphasizing the whole processor/chipset combo? There's been a tendency to capitalize on existing successful branding campaigns - look at the life of the Pentium name, which was originally just a replacement for '586. That would argue for the possibility of names such as Centrino-D (for desktop), Centrino II, and such. One thing the marketeers are aware of is the risk of confusing your non-technical customers with too many name brands. You want them to go "Oh, sure. Centrino. That's good, right? And Centrino II must be better!" No doubt about it. There is nothing within the name "Centrino" that suggests that it's only about mobile products, so it could easily be adopted by the desktop guys. Yousuf Khan |
#12
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Yousuf Khan wrote:
Robert Myers wrote: As I read the signs and portents coming from both Intel and IBM, though, the technology should not be taken to be mature and the market could be headed for chaos. Why because they're having trouble getting good power consumption out of their 90nm processes? What relevance has that got with whether the technology is mature or not? The technology itself is mature because it's been around forever. Nobody cares how it's made though. The question is most interesting if you take the technology to be the PC. Your "nobody cares how it's made" would require a technlogical miracle that no one in the history of parallel programming has so far been able to deliver; viz, that you can add even a second thread without rewriting everything. To take an ulikely but still plausible script, suppose the Cell processor is anything like the claims that have been made for it and suppose that software developers come up with a way to harness all that power in a way that makes a significant difference to the end user experience. End of x86, unless x86 has something comparable to offer. In particular, the von Neumann architecture is a technological dead end Wow, I'm not even touching that. Where'd that come from? There are only so many ways you can get more throughput: wider, deeper, faster. The performance of Prescott and IBM's declaration that scaling is dead should give you a clue that faster and deeper are ceasing to be options. That leaves only wider. Itanium carries the flag for single-threaded wide issue in mainstream processors. It works, sort of, but I know of no one who argues that it's a scalable solution. That leaves multiple threads. You can put more transitors on a die, but you can't use them for much of anything because if you run them at a high clock to do useful work they leak and they produce heat. One solution is to use those transistors for huge cache: what a waste of beautiful silicon, and not a scalable solution, either. Slower, wider, cooler. That's the future. I can't believe you're reading it here for the first time. No two ways about it, the disappointing performance of Prescott matched against the technological success of AMD/IBM have forced Intel to scramble, but it's a reasonable guess that Intel has actually known for a while in what direction it was going to scramble when forced. The fact that Intel didn't take the future they've been hinting about seriously enough to come up with a more mature marketing campaign does suggest a certain level of denial at the highest levels of Intel management, though. ;-). I'm sure the scenarios have been played out within Intel for some time. Knowing about all of the possible scenarios is one thing, but knowing exactly which scenario is going to play out is to become god. Yes. I'm sure that Intel management has been told so many times that the sky was falling that they could reasonably be excused for acting as if the sky would never fall, even if they knew that it would. Denial, though, is denial. The sky is going to fall. RM |
#13
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In article mxntc.122623$xw3.7407476@attbi_s04, rmyers1400
@comcast.net says... chrisv wrote: Robert Myers wrote: The features in Grantsdale also could help persuade shoppers to seek out Intel-based computers, said Intel spokeswoman Laura Anderson. That may also steer shoppers away from PCs built with chips from rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc.. Not to appear to defend a bunch of marketing BS, but some of us do shop the chipset, obviously. Intel chipsets are the reason I've always been an Intel customer. In fact, lately I've been buying Intel-branded motherboards, confident in their quality, and confident that if/when I install Linux on them, they'll be completely supported. (I'm responsible for quite a number of computers at home and work.) I just haven't seen a need to look elsewhere, recently. It's not like I'd actually notice the 10% improvement in performance that I'd get by going with AMD and a brand-X chipset (given equal dollars). Looking forward, it appears that Intel may be in trouble with the lame Prescott going against the superb Athlon 64, and I could live with an Nvidia chipset... I'll cross that bridge when I'm next in the market for a home machine. No flames, please, we're all entitled to our opinions. Why flame everyday good sense? Who could argue that Prescott is not a disappointment or that the chipset is not an important part of a purchase decision for a knowledgeable buyer? If you look at what Intel is doing as purely a marketing ploy, it's fairly transparent and easy to make fun of. If the market for PC-type processors were mature (and some people do think it is), we should be preparing for a future of Coke vs. Pepsi and Hertz vs. Avis marketing campaigns. As I read the signs and portents coming from both Intel and IBM, though, the technology should not be taken to be mature and the market could be headed for chaos. In particular, the von Neumann architecture is a technological dead end as far as increasing the power of microprocessors is concerned. It's a dead end because, while there may be a few more doublings left in Moore's law, the von Neumann architecture is already having trouble making good use of the available transistors for a number of reasons: heat, leakage, and the inevitable triumph of wire delay come to mind first. If Intel wants buyers to think about upgrading for more power, it is going to have to get buyers to think about something more complex than a more powerful single-threaded x86 processor. It's not a problem Intel is facing by itself. IBM, on whom AMD is reliant at the moment for process technology, is having problems with scaling, too. It is hard to imagine that AMD is not going to run into the same brick wall as Intel, albeit more slowly because AMD did not make the self-destructive choice that Intel did: to get to a faster clock at all costs. If the von Neumann architecture is running out of steam, and if entertainment is the future, then the future of x86 for "personal" computing has to be threatened, too. In a universe of wild imagining, maybe Sony/Toshiba/IBM, not AMD, is the real threat to Intel's dominance. Not likely, but Intel would have its work cut out for it in the "personal" computing business even without AMD: either people are going to lose interest, the business will become a true commodity dominated by the likes of VIA and Red Dragon, or Intel has to come up with something to match the hype of a Cell because that's how much razzle dazzle it will require to keep Intel in the style to which it has become accustomed. No two ways about it, the disappointing performance of Prescott matched against the technological success of AMD/IBM have forced Intel to scramble, but it's a reasonable guess that Intel has actually known for a while in what direction it was going to scramble when forced. The fact that Intel didn't take the future they've been hinting about seriously enough to come up with a more mature marketing campaign does suggest a certain level of denial at the highest levels of Intel management, though. ;-). Good grief, Robert! We agree on something substantial! Write this date down! ;-) -- Keith |
#14
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On Thu, 27 May 2004 05:29:14 GMT, Robert Myers
wrote: George Macdonald wrote: On Wed, 26 May 2004 00:21:32 GMT, Robert Myers wrote: What do you do when you're having competitive problems with your main product and there is no guaranteed relief in sight? You change the subject. At least, that's what I infer Intel to be doing with Grantsdale: http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory...h/news/2591485 Hmm, Centrino for the desktop? All they need is a name for the "package" now. Any guesses... anybody? Since picking a brand name is a big deal these days (there are IP issues with practically any name you can think of), and since there is so little time, one suspects that Intel is going to have to do without. If this weren't a hurry-up job, they'd have a brand name ready and we'd have been exposed to it dozens of times by now. Think of the marketing barrage that preceded Centrino. And yet most people still don't know what Centrino is or what it is supposed to cover. How many times do you hear someone refer to a "Centrino CPU"? I guess Centrium is too obvious as a name for the desktop package and possibly, as you say, already taken... but a quick search doesn't turn up anything in the computer industry which clashes. I'm not so sure about "hurry-up" here... the way Intel has been sponsoring startups in the home oriented multimedia sphere and filling in with in-house nuts-n-bolts stuff. A big fanfare at rollout with dog 'n' pony shows all over could have more impact than a ramped info-trickle. Where do they get this stuff: "Because the chip set incorporates features like Dolby audio and advanced 3-D video previously found only in add-on cards..."? They get it from the press release, one gathers. I haven't yet found the culpable press release on Intel's site, though. Wot a loada BULL****! Intel plays catch-up and a buncha anal...ysts drop their drawers in public!!! How embarrassing. You worry me sometimes. Can't you just relax and enjoy the show? :-). I can stand clueless but clueless pretending to be expert advice/opinion prickles with me - bald-faced lies ****es me off. Rgds, George Macdonald "Just because they're paranoid doesn't mean you're not psychotic" - Who, me?? |
#15
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George Macdonald wrote:
And yet most people still don't know what Centrino is or what it is supposed to cover. How many times do you hear someone refer to a "Centrino CPU"? I guess Centrium is too obvious as a name for the desktop package and possibly, as you say, already taken... but a quick search doesn't turn up anything in the computer industry which clashes. Hell, even most of us that know better have to often use the Centrino term instead of Pentium-M, just so that others will understand what we're talking about. Yousuf Khan |
#16
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Robert Myers wrote:
No two ways about it, the disappointing performance of Prescott matched against the technological success of AMD/IBM have forced Intel to scramble, but it's a reasonable guess that Intel has actually known for a while in what direction it was going to scramble when forced. The fact that Intel didn't take the future they've been hinting about seriously enough to come up with a more mature marketing campaign does suggest a certain level of denial at the highest levels of Intel management, though. ;-). Well, they're probably in a state of shock over what appears to be the impending death of IA64. They had high hopes for that unclonable architecture, and the profitability of a de facto monopoly at the high end. Now it seems that they'll have to slug it out in AMD and the others for a couple more decades... 8) |
#17
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KR Williams wrote:
snip Good grief, Robert! We agree on something substantial! Write this date down! ;-) As with all things Usenet, the event is safely recorded for posterity. Think of the effort required for constantly successful disagreement. It just couldn't be worth it. :-). RM |
#18
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George Macdonald wrote:
On Thu, 27 May 2004 05:29:14 GMT, Robert Myers wrote: George Macdonald wrote: On Wed, 26 May 2004 00:21:32 GMT, Robert Myers wrote: snip I'm not so sure about "hurry-up" here... the way Intel has been sponsoring startups in the home oriented multimedia sphere and filling in with in-house nuts-n-bolts stuff. A big fanfare at rollout with dog 'n' pony shows all over could have more impact than a ramped info-trickle. They've definitely been clearing ground for this current agenda for a while, but I think it's fair to infer that the exact timing and delivery of much of this stuff is being forced upon them. If Prescott had turned out the way Intel wanted to, we'd be hearing about Megahertz, not chipsets. Where do they get this stuff: "Because the chip set incorporates features like Dolby audio and advanced 3-D video previously found only in add-on cards..."? They get it from the press release, one gathers. I haven't yet found the culpable press release on Intel's site, though. Wot a loada BULL****! Intel plays catch-up and a buncha anal...ysts drop their drawers in public!!! How embarrassing. You worry me sometimes. Can't you just relax and enjoy the show? :-). I can stand clueless but clueless pretending to be expert advice/opinion prickles with me - bald-faced lies ****es me off. Intel is using the relative technological unsophistication of those who write for the press to get its advertising message across as hard news. They didn't invent the game, of course. Every technology company draws from the same pool of PR types, and it would be amazing if the PR style of Intel differed significantly from industry norms in terms of what comes natural. Intel does seem to me to be much more calculating about its message than most, and they seem to make it work for them. I am probably more inclined than the average technologist to pay attention to these sorts of things, but it really does seem to me that you can't understand what Intel is up to without understanding the messages it is trying to convey. That's why I take up bandwidth in hardware groups calling attention on it. :-). As to genuine cluelessness/misinformation, it seems to me like you would need some kind of logarithmic scale. Consumers aren't very well informed about the actual properties of the laundry detergents they buy. The difference, you might fairly object, is that technical-sounding press releases from Proctor and Gamble don't frequently show up in the press as hard news. Don't know what to say about that. I give Intel considerable credit for having successfully cultivated a market by persuading so many people that they needed all that muscle to begin with. I don't think things like that just happen. I have to be careful with this line of thinking, though, because it would eventually lead to my expression very grudging admiration for Microsoft, and we wouldn't want that. RM |
#19
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"Yousuf Khan" wrote:
chrisv wrote: I just haven't seen a need to look elsewhere, recently. It's not like I'd actually notice the 10% improvement in performance that I'd get by going with AMD and a brand-X chipset (given equal dollars). Looking forward, it appears that Intel may be in trouble with the lame Prescott going against the superb Athlon 64, and I could live with an Nvidia chipset... I'll cross that bridge when I'm next in the market for a home machine. As they say, if you don't try any other products other than the ones you're comfortable with, then how are you ever going to know the quality of the competing products? Well, I have eyes and ears, and yes, still some prejudices. 8) One example: A friend of mine, who had purchased a PC pre-configured with Lindows 3. Cheap, brand-X motherboard and chipset, of course. When he installed Lindows 4 on the same machine, the sound wouldn't work. We tried some other Linux distributions and had issues with the on-board video. Yuck. He's now ordering, on my recommendation, an Intel D865GBFL, and I'd be shocked it if wasn't properly supported (we're putting on the new Fedora Core 2, again on my recommendation). |
#20
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chrisv wrote:
Well, they're probably in a state of shock over what appears to be the impending death of IA64. They had high hopes for that unclonable architecture, and the profitability of a de facto monopoly at the high end. Now it seems that they'll have to slug it out in AMD and the others for a couple more decades... 8) Hey maybe it's a good sign for the architecture, but what appears to be the first Windows for IA64 virus was discovered this week. :-) http://www.techtree.com/techtree/jsp...?storyid=52738 Yousuf Khan |
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