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Intel's new 3D transistors will leave competiton for dead
On May 15, 9:57*pm, Yousuf Khan wrote:
On 15/05/2011 1:07 PM, Robert Myers wrote: It's true. *No one knows how any particular technology will play out. I'm sure that IBM and Global Foundries will eventually build the technological equivalent of tri-gate transistors. *The questions are when and at what cost. *If someone eventually beats Intel, it will be because someone has figured out how to do bleeding edge manufacturing at a lower cost than Intel. *Don't hold your breath. It's actually already right there for the IBM alliance: SOI. More specifically FDSOI (fully-depleted SOI). They've been using this technology since the 90nm node. Intel has been avoiding SOI since that time, and trying to find every technology that give it the equivalent featureset as SOI without having to use SOI. They came up with HKMG as the big marketing announcement in the last node, and now FinFETs. FinFETs increase the gate-source capacitance in exchange for higher drive current. It's not going to have nearly the same level of advantage as HKMG gave them, and HKMG really didn't give them all that much of an advantage in power-savings or performance during the last node either, despite all of their hype for that technology too. As I said, these technology announcements are for the sake of the announcement, nothing else. A friend recently inquired of me as to the nature of my computers. I have a few. He was most interested in the one AMD box I own. It's obsolete and I never bought it particularly for performance to begin with. Other than the fact that the processor is dual core and that Microsoft online tests concluded that said box could run Vista were I so much of a fool as to want to upgrade, I know next to nothing about the machine. Here is the secret I have been struggling to conceal all these years: it's better for me to buy from one vendor because it's hard enough for me to keep up with the technology at Intel. That is to say, I'm simply too stupid to keep track of what the also-rans in this business are up to. OK? That, and the fact that Intel has a clean balance sheet, not something that is an unknowable combination of the combined accounting trickery of IBM, AMD, and Global Foundries. Had it had to run microelectronics as a money-making business, IBM would have been out of the game long ago. I conclude, from repeated interactions from you, that you simply don't process facts that are inconvenient for your world view. Why don't we let it go at that? I have better things to do with my neurons and you simply aren't interested in anything that doesn't fit your preconceived notions. I hope that whoever is following Intel at Goldman Sachs is either smarter or more honest than you are, but I'm not going to hold out hope. If and when it becomes clear that ARM is a significant player in problems of interest to me, maybe I'll take some time to learn something beyond what real computer architects have already told me. Robert.. |
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Intel's new 3D transistors will leave competiton for dead
Robert Myers wrote:
If and when it becomes clear that ARM is a significant player in problems of interest to me, maybe I'll take some time to learn something beyond what real computer architects have already told me. So you don't own a smart phone, microwave, HDTV, cable box, or anything like that? Intel has said they are going to put more effort into competing with ARM in those markets, they think those are problems of interest. |
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Intel's new 3D transistors will leave competiton for dead
On May 24, 10:57*am, Bill Davidsen wrote:
Robert Myers wrote: If and when it becomes clear that ARM is a significant player in problems of interest to me, maybe I'll take some time to learn something beyond what real computer architects have already told me. So you don't own a smart phone, microwave, HDTV, cable box, or anything like that? Intel has said they are going to put more effort into competing with ARM in those markets, they think those are problems of interest. So far as I have been able to understand the business, Intel has not ever been successful in any market other than x86 and directly supporting technologies, at least not in recent memory. The only argument that makes sense for Intel to compete with ARM is that arm is a potential threat to x86--the core of its business. I don't even own a dumb cell phone, and the only thing I require from my microwave oven is that it work. I don't watch television. The only place where ARM might be of interest to me is in very low power massively parallel processing (often erroneously referred to as supercomputing). Robert. |
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