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View Full Version : Re: "Xbox 2011" - predicting the NEXT generation Xbox


RKRM
November 15th 07, 10:13 PM
"AirRaid" > wrote in message
...
> After Xbox 360: Microsoft's next console
> How fast? How much memory? We take educated guesses
>
> James Morris
> 15 Nov 2007 17:13 GMT
>
> It's almost two years to the day since Microsoft launched the Xbox
> 360. So you would expect its successor to be well on its way towards
> fruition. But Microsoft has dropped only a few subtle hints about what
> form it could take, and hasn't provided any details.
>
> The most significant statement so far has been about timeframe.
> Supposedly, the next generation Xbox will arrive next decade, possibly
> 2011 or 2012.



No way will it be 2012. MAYBE 2011 but I predict it will be late 2010. Of
course this all depends what Sony and Nintendo do. I don't think anyone
wants to launch significantly later than the competition. That has been part
of the Sony disaster. They won't do it again.


>
> Microsoft wants as long as possible to recoup the $1.26 billion it
> spent developing the Xbox 360.
>
> With such a long wait ahead, we've taken it upon ourselves to jump in
> the Tech.co.uk time machine and dialled in 2011, to give you a sneak
> peek of what you should expect from the next Xbox. Some have already
> named the 360's successor as the 'Xbox 720'. But we shall be referring
> to it as the 'Xbox 2011', to commemorate its likely year of arrival.
>
> Putting the clocks back
>
> To start off, let's take a look at how the Xbox 360 leapt ahead of its
> predecessor, and what that could mean for the Xbox 2011. The CPU clock
> speed quadrupled between the Xbox and Xbox 360, so that might imply
> that the 2011 CPU would be running at 12GHz.
>
> But Intel is claiming its 32nm Sandy Bridge architecture will arrive
> at 4GHz in 2010, and clock speeds for the top desktop CPUs have
> remained steady at around 3GHz since the tail end of 2003. So we can't
> see a console processor hitting 12GHz, even in 2011. The core clock
> would well be a fairly minor leap forward - it could be running at
> just 5GHz.
>
> Core blimey!
>
> One thing the Xbox 2011 CPU will have, however, is processing cores -
> lots of them. The Xbox had one core, and the 360 has three. Looking at
> current trends, we predict there will be at least eight processing
> cores in the next version, possibly as many as 16 - and there could
> even be up to 32. After all, desktop PC chips with eight cores are due
> at the end of 2008 in the shape of Intel's Nehalem architecture.
>
> Something similar is likely to happen to the graphics acceleration. It
> is rumoured that AMD/ATI's forthcoming R700 architecture will offer up
> to eight GPU cores for the highest-end products, and that's due in
> 2008. Intel's Larabee graphics project also aims to be many-cored.
>
> On the other hand, the Xbox 360's graphics run at only twice the
> clockspeed of the original Xbox's. So we could be seeing consoles in
> 2011 with lots of little graphics cores, perhaps as many as 64. But
> each one might only be running at a speed of 2GHz or even less.
>
> All of these cores could well be part of one single chip, too. Both
> Intel and AMD are planning to integrate graphics onto their CPUs
> around the beginning of 2009. By 2011 this idea could be well
> established. There's even some talk of Microsoft designing its own
> chips, although there are very few details of this.
>
> RAMming it home
>
> Where today's premium PCs are sporting 2GB of memory, with 512MB more
> lined up on the graphics card, the Xbox360 only has 512MB shared
> across both CPU and GPU. A console needs to be much more affordable
> for the mass market.
>
> Since we expect the console's operating system to be a 64-bit
> environment, memory in excess of 4GB would be perfectly feasible. But
> we suspect the amount of RAM will remain well behind desktop PCs, for
> cost reasons - maybe just 8GB?
>
>
> The Xbox 2011 will probably continue with a shared memory
> architecture, particularly if the processing chip incorporates both
> CPU and GPU cores. So it will use GDDR graphics memory instead of
> desktop PC's DDR. GDDR benefits from a much more frequent update cycle
> than DDR - it's already on its fifth generation, where DDR is only on
> its third.
> Power to the virtual people
>
> The Xbox 360 has 115.2 GFLOPS floating point performance, 100 times
> the original Xbox, and can process 500 million polygons a second -
> five times its predecessor. With its plethora of cores, the Xbox 2011
> could have 100 times more GLOPS again - maybe 10 TFLOPs, not far off
> supercomputer status. Its multiple graphics cores will allow it to
> process and texture many millions of polygons a second.
>
> So what will all this processing power actually be doing? Obviously,
> graphics will become still closer to cinematic photorealism ( Project
> Gotham Racing 8 will be indistinguishable from TV race coverage; Call
> of Duty 8 will be shocking). But multiple cores will enable lots of
> other cool new capabilities too.
>
>
> There is already talk of a camera with the ability to sense motion,
> and maybe voice activation. So you will be able to control your game
> character using gestures, and converse with NPCs using your own voice,
> giving commands or engaging in realistic dialogue.
>
> This is just the start. Hardware physics processing is already finding
> its way onto the PC, either using a dedicated chip or borrowed GPU
> power. This will play a big part in future console games.
>
> But the extra CPUs could also be called upon for more complex AI tasks
> - something the Halo series has become famous for. So Xbox 2011 games
> are likely to offer much more realistic NPC behaviour. The next
> console generation will be both a very good virtual companion, and a
> much more dangerous enemy.
>
> Disc jockeys
>
> Something that could be very different in 2011 is the mode of game
> delivery. Online game purchasing (like Valve's Steam) is still in its
> infancy, and current next-gen consoles are sticking primarily with
> discs for games. PlayStation 3 uses Blu-ray, and you can get an HD DVD
> drive for the Xbox 360, so these options are likely to remain on their
> successors, if only for backwards compatibility.
>
> But the chances are that the next consoles will be very much network-
> connected devices, something Microsoft has pioneered with Xbox LIVE.
>
> So the Xbox 2011 will more than likely come with a big hard disk - or
> even gigabytes of Flash storage - and your games will download
> straight onto this. It'll destroy the second-hand trade-in market, of
> course. But maybe we'll all be selling our electronic license keys on
> eBay instead!
>
> Our prediction for the next Xbox is...
>
> So here's the bottom line for the Xbox in 2011, based on current
> trends and what we know is happening over the next few years. Check
> back here in 2011 to see if we were right!
>
> * CPU/GPU - Integrated chip with 16 x 5GHz processor cores, 32 x 2GHz
> graphics cores
> * Memory - 8GB GDDR8
> * Media - Dual-format HD-DVD/Blu-ray drive for backwards compatibility
> and movies
> * Storage - 4TB hard disk for online game (and movie) delivery
> * Built-in camera - for gesture-based control
> * Built-in microphone - for voice-recognised control
>
> http://www.tech.co.uk/home-entertainment/gaming/games-consoles/features/after-xbox-360-microsofts-next-console